On first sight, the thought experiment ofÂ Stratfor’s senior Middle East analystÂ Reva BhallaÂ to explain geostrategy and strategic forecasting by Quantum Physics seemsÂ weird. But in second sight her approach seems exciting at least: „The four-dimensional world of quantum mechanics may offer some guidance or, at the very least, a philosophical approach to strategic forecasting.“
For details about „waves“ and „amplitudes“ and Einstein’s „stubbornly persistent illusion“ of the separation between past, present and future see Reva Bhallas introduction to her Stratfor article today.
At latest when she adapts her Quantum theory to the current situation of Turkey and the Middle East and a corresponding forecast you are fascinated by the method:
„Turkey’s interest in northern Syria and northern Iraq is not an abstraction triggered by a group of religious fanatics calling themselves the Islamic State; it is the bypass, intersection and reinforcement of multiple geopolitical wavelengths creating an invisible force behind Ankara to re-extend Turkey’s formal and informal boundaries beyond Anatolia. To understand just how far Turkey extends and at what point it inevitably contracts again, we must examine the intersecting wavelengths emanating from Baghdad, Damascus, Moscow, Washington, Arbil and Riyadh. As long as Syria is engulfed in civil war, its wavelength will be too weak to interfere with Turkey’s ambitions for northern Syria, but a rehabilitated Iran could interfere through Kurdistan and block Turkey farther to the east. The United States, intent on reducing its burdens in the Middle East and balancing against Russia, will reinforce the Turkish wavelength up to a point, while higher frequencies from other Sunni players such as Saudi Arabia will run interference against Turkey in Mesopotamia and the Levant. While Russia still has the capacity to project military power outward, Turkey’s moves in Europe and the Caucasus will skirt around Russia for some time, but that dynamic will shift once Russia becomes consumed with its own domestic fissures and Turkey has more room to extend through the Black Sea region.
Most interesting in the article are the historic backgrounds and corresponding maps, as well. Really worth reading.